When rolling out a highly complex, software-heavy product, it is vital to know what a worst-case scenario could be and which factors are critical. Low-probability events can have disatrous consequences on reputation, warranty costs and liability. While it is impossible to make predictions, one still needs to make decisions, devise strategies and move forward and attempt at least some basic risk management, but with very little knowledge of what those risks may actually be.
What is of greatest concern are the so-called Black Swans – extremely rare events but with huge consequences – which are obviously very difficult to anticipate. Given their peculiar characteristics, it is practically impossible to predict them and therefore to counter their devastating events. However, protective measures may still be taken, providing one has an idea of what the worst-case scenario might be in a given context.
Ontonix has developed the Black Swan Protection System. Based on historical data, the tool generates automatically a multitude of feasible future scenarios and identifies the most unfavourable ones from a resilience and complexity. Scenarios are generated based on user-defined probability of an unlikely event occurring in any of the variables that describe the system. The tool generates Black Swan-type events and helps users to define strategies to mitigate risk in circumstances that are very unlikely and potentially catastrophic.
The severity of a Black Swan is defined by the probability of occurrence in terms of multiples of standard deviations. A three-sigma event, for example, occurs with a probability of 0.27% while a six-sigma event with a probability of 0.00000002%. With this information provided by the user, the Artificial Intuition generates multiple scenarios based on the current situation and without the need to resort to lengthy Monte Carlo Simulation. In addition to the worst-case scenario, the most likely one and the most favourable ones are also determined.
An example of the type of scenarios that the tool generates are shown below.
Applications are numerous:
- Complex products
- Complex manufacturing processes
- Critical infrastructure protection
- Cybersecurity
- Crisis Management
- Conflicts, battle management Systems
- Finance, economics
- Insurance
The bottom line is that based on your current data, we are able to identify scenarios that define your worst nightmare. It is important to be aware of what your worst case scenario may be and to be prepared to face it and to have an idea of the potential consequences, no matter how catastrophic.
Artificial Intuition 
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