April 28, 2020 Fitch cuts the rating of Italy from ‘BBB’ (April 21, 2017) to ‘BBB-‘ with stable outlook. The downgrade, the agency points out, “reflects the significant impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Italian economy”. According to Fitch, in 2020, Italy’s GDP should record a drop 8% with a debt / GDP ratio…
The covid-19 has accentuated the fragmentation of the European Union. In a moment of political fragility we have performed a resilience rating analysis of the union as a whole as well as of the individual countries and specific macro regions. The idea is to perform a preliminary and simple assessment of how each country could…
Easter Island (Chilean territory), is a remote volcanic island in Polynesia. Its native name is Rapa Nui. It’s famed for archaeological sites, including nearly 900 monumental statues called moai, created by inhabitants during the 13th–16th centuries. The moai are carved human figures with oversize heads, often resting on massive stone pedestals called ahus. Ahu Tongariki…
The search for early-warning signs is one of the key issues for decision makers. The advantages of knowing in advance the evolution towards critical situations are obvious. Complexity is a new and powerful indicator that quantifies the degree of sophistication and governability of a business and which impacts its Resistance to Shocks[1] (RtS). Both complexity…
The EU28 Resistance-to-Shocks (RtS) ratings. To navigate the Complexity Maps, click on the corresponding icon. Hover and click the mouse pointer over the squares on the map. The resilience (robustness) ranking is as follows: Analysis performed…
It is known that Deutsche Bank is in trouble and, according to some, it poses a huge threat to the stability of the global financial system. Read here. On October 29-th, 2015, “The Bank announced a series of measures to reduce complexity and costs” and that the strategic goal was to “Make Deutsche Bank simpler and more efficient”.…
The Global Financial Complexity Index™ (GFCI™) is a meta-index which measures the complexity of the global financial system. The GFCI™ is based on the closing values of the indices of the World’s main market indices and is computed on a daily basis. Essential to the global investor, the GFCI™ measures the ‘temperature’ of the…
The EU is a huge system of systems. In our previous blogs on the subject we have shown how the resilience of this system is still very low – just over 60% – and how its dynamics is difficult to govern and steer. Both those in favor and against the so-called Brexit are producing numerous arguments, projections and…
The economy is a dynamic system which is far too complex for us to understand. Human nature is extremely complex and billions of irrational humans form the economy. How can such a system ever be thought to be efficient, in equilibrium and stable, as many prominent economists have claimed? But this system, like every…
In the past few weeks stock markets have been plummeting. There is talk of a perfect storm. On May 18-th our blog hinted the possibility of a generalized market collapse in virtue of low levels of the Global Financial Resilience Index (GFRI) and its downward trend. With falling oil prices, a troubled banking system, low inflation…
