Three Questions to Executive Chairman of Universal Ratings
Short interview with Dr. J. Marczyk, the co-founder and Executive Chairman of Singapore-based Universal Ratings Pte Ltd. See video here.
Who Rates Ratings?
The economy is a dynamic system which is far too complex for us to understand. Human nature is extremely complex and billions of irrational humans form the economy. How can such a system ever be thought to be efficient, in equilibrium and stable, as many prominent economists have claimed? But this system, like every…
Optimum-Complexity Portfolios: How to Invest in Turbulent Times
Research confirms that high portfolio complexity impacts negatively mid and long-term expected returns. This is because high complexity is a formidable source of fragility, hence vulnerability. In a turbulent economy highly vulnerable portfolios and financial products are more exposed and more volatile. Therefore, a new portfolio design strategy based on complexity has recently been developed.…
In a Storm Stay Away From Complex Stocks
In the past few weeks stock markets have been plummeting. There is talk of a perfect storm. On May 18-th our blog hinted the possibility of a generalized market collapse in virtue of low levels of the Global Financial Resilience Index (GFRI) and its downward trend. With falling oil prices, a troubled banking system, low inflation…
Rating the Resilience of Major Markets, 31-st December, 2015
Resilience Ratings of major markets are reported in the table below. Analysis performed on 31/12/2015. The results are presented without comments. Resilience is the capacity to absorb shocks or destabilizing events, such as financial contagion, stock market collapses, market bubbles, natural disasters or geopolitical events. Opposite of fragility, resilience provides an indication of…
Sustainability and the Dramatic Importance of Systemic Analysis
You only appreciate the importance of systemic analysis once you see the kind of new knowledge it delivers. There is much talk of systemic analysis in finance but there is very little research on the subject, not to mention a regulatory vacuum. We analyze stock markets on a daily basis. In particular, we focus on…
Investing Based on Systemic Analysis of Markets
Suppose that one wishes to invest in US public companies and eventually two candidate portfolios are available. Suppose that both portfolios are built on companies having a resilience that is higher than that of the entire system of US public companies. The plot below indicates the resilience and complexity of this system which comprises over…
Have Greek Elections Impacted the Resilience of Global Finance?
Blog written on February 3-rd, 2015. After the anti-bailout party has won the elections in Greece, global stock indices have edged up and the Euro has rebounded. The reaction of the markets appears to be, after much trepidation, mild, almost nonexistent. Has the Syriza-effect been compensated by the ECB’s money-printing programme? It is too early…
Is a Huge Stock Market Crash Imminent?
Blog written on January 12-th, 2015. In a recent article “Why The Next Stock Market Crash Will Happen Any Day Now” it is claimed that a massive stock market crash (down by 50%) will happen any day now. Based on past crash patterns it is said that we are on the verge of another huge…
Resilience Rating. It’s All About Fragility, not Probability.
Resilience rating is a revolutionary, INDEPENDENT and TRANSPARENT internet-based rating system that allows users to perform an objective and reliable evaluation of the state of health of any business. The hallmark of the service is that YOU perform the rating, NOT a third party that does not understand your business. This means you TRUST the…
