How Classical Ratings Compare to Resilience Ratings – the S&P, Dow and NASDAQ
The Probability of Default (PoD) of a company is the central concept behind a conventional rating. Ratings constitute a fundamentalContinue Reading
Tag: risk management
The Next Global Worst Nightmare Scenario
In today’s turbulent world, punctuated by destabilizing events of increasing intensity and frequency, it is vital to know what aContinue Reading
Your Worst Nightmare and the Black Swan Protection System
In today’s turbulent world, punctuated by destabilizing events of increasing intensity and frequency, it is vital to know what aContinue Reading
Complexity Rating of Assets
Stock interaction takes the form of large, complex and dynamic networks, that change constantly. The nature and structure of thisContinue Reading
Why This Crisis Won’t Go Away (Soon)
Why do most theorems in maths start by saying “let f(x) be a continuous differentiable function…”? Why do so manyContinue Reading
Correlation is Charlatanism.
“…correlation is charlatanism” Photo: AP photo/Richard Drew “Anything that relies on correlation is charlatanism” is a great article. But isContinue Reading
What is Missing in the WEF 2015 Global Risks Report?
Complexity-induced risk. In the WEF 2015 Global Risks Report, the word ‘complexity’ is mentioned only 8 times and in aContinue Reading
The Elegance of Frugality and Risk
Preface to “A New Theory of Risk and Rating” by Giulio Sapelli. The Elegance of Frugality and Risk. From aContinue Reading
Large-scale Analysis of Ecosystems of Corporations
In an interconnected and complex economy corporations form networks, or ecosystems as well as supply chains (or supply networks asContinue Reading
Risk = Probability X Consequences. Really?
(image from http://www.impactlab.net) Probably the most frequently used definition of risk is this one: Risk = the Probability ofContinue Reading
Artificial Intuition 