April 28, 2020 Fitch cuts the rating of Italy from ‘BBB’ (April 21, 2017) to ‘BBB-‘ with stable outlook. The downgrade, the agency points out, “reflects the significant impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Italian economy”. According to Fitch, in 2020, Italy’s GDP should record a drop 8% with a debt / GDP ratio…
The EU28 Resistance-to-Shocks (RtS) ratings. To navigate the Complexity Maps, click on the corresponding icon. Hover and click the mouse pointer over the squares on the map. The resilience (robustness) ranking is as follows: Analysis performed…
The economy is a dynamic system which is far too complex for us to understand. Human nature is extremely complex and billions of irrational humans form the economy. How can such a system ever be thought to be efficient, in equilibrium and stable, as many prominent economists have claimed? But this system, like every…
Resilience Ratings of major markets are reported in the table below. Analysis performed on 31/12/2015. The results are presented without comments. Resilience is the capacity to absorb shocks or destabilizing events, such as financial contagion, stock market collapses, market bubbles, natural disasters or geopolitical events. Opposite of fragility, resilience provides an indication of…
Resilience rating is a revolutionary, INDEPENDENT and TRANSPARENT internet-based rating system that allows users to perform an objective and reliable evaluation of the state of health of any business. The hallmark of the service is that YOU perform the rating, NOT a third party that does not understand your business. This means you TRUST the…
A quick look at the resilience of the major indices on December 19-th, 2014. The analysis is performed on a daily basis, we report the situation we have registered after the markets closed yesterday. EU: FTSE.MIB – 63.7% SSMI – 81.5% FTSE – 64.5% CAC40 – 44.6% DAX30 – 76.3% Asia: HSI – 68.9%…
In a turbulent economy, punctuated by destabilizing events, resilience and complexity as the main new factors which are impacting the global economy and driving financial performance. Increasing volatility, complexity and uncertainty are becoming the hallmarks of our times. While the unprecedented challenges affecting the global economy are a source of both opportunities and threats, traditional…
Preface to “A New Theory of Risk and Rating” by Giulio Sapelli. The Elegance of Frugality and Risk. From a theoretical standpoint, risk is confronted in the very same way in which human interests and activities deploy and manifest themselves at given levels of self-organization. In fact, there cannot exist an objectivistic and deterministic theory…
The World’s stock markets form a complex highly interdependent and dynamic network which embraces the entire global economy. This system of systems, comprising over 45000 interacting corporations, provides an instantaneous reflection of the world’s economy and its state of health. As of the end of November, the total value of equities in the 58 major…
It its may 12-th, 2014 final Peer Review Report (download) the Financial Stability Board speaks of “reducing Reliance on CRA Ratings”. According to the FSB: “The key challenge lies in developing alternative standards of creditworthiness and processes so that CRA ratings are not the sole input to credit risk assessment.” As we have repeatedly pointed…
