Models are simplified representations or emulators of reality. They are typically based on empirical data collected conducting experiments. There exist numerous techniques for establishing models based on data. An example of a linear model, built based on 2-dimensional data is illustrated below. The model in this simple case is a straight line. It may be…
Anomaly detection, especially their early detection, is a crucial capability when it comes to operating large complex systems, processes or critical infrastructures. Because it is difficult to make highly complex systems resilient in the face of a multitude of potential often unknown hazards, it is desirable to be able to identify anomalies, malfunctions and attacks…
Resilience is a fancy, fashionable à la mode word. Being able to withstand the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune is something everyone wants. The ability to recover quickly, to spring back into the original shape is certainly desireable in any field. Nature builds resilient things. Engineers are sometimes able to create resilient designs. This…
Every year the World Bank publishes its Development Indicators data, which we analyze in order to measure and track the resilience (fragility) and complexity of countries, macro regions and of the world as a system. The goal is to produce strategic systemic information for governments and government agencies especially in the context of management of disasters,…
Each year the World Bank publishes its Development Indicators data, which we analyze in order to measure and track the resilience and complexity of countries, macro regions and of the world as a system. The goal is to extract strategic and systemic information which may be useful to governments and government agencies especially in the…
In highly complex contexts, or when one runs out of arguments in a debate, it is customary to resort to elaborate conspiratory theories. Theories are constructed based on a set of data points. When many data points are available, one can construct many theories. The problem is that all these theories will agree in the…
From Wikipedia: The 2020 stock market crash was a global stock market crash that began on 20 February 2020. On 12 February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ Composite, and S&P 500 Index all finished at record highs (while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 reached subsequent record highs on 19 February). From 24 to…
The origin of the well known Murphy’s Laws may be traced to Edwards Air Force Base in 1949. A few of the most popular of these laws: If anything can go wrong, it will If there is a possibility of several things going wrong, the one that will cause the most damage will be the…
The irrational covid-19-induced destruction of our economy has exacerbated the north-south divisions in Europe and sparked debates on issues such as austerity, recovery funds, financial stability and, of course, national debts. But when speaking of national debts, economists consistently ignore, or forget, the issue of implicit debt and focus exclusively on explicit debt. We propose…
April 28, 2020 Fitch cuts the rating of Italy from ‘BBB’ (April 21, 2017) to ‘BBB-‘ with stable outlook. The downgrade, the agency points out, “reflects the significant impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Italian economy”. According to Fitch, in 2020, Italy’s GDP should record a drop 8% with a debt / GDP ratio…
