QCM technology allows to make very quick risk and resilience assessments of all sorts of systems of processes. All it takes is data. Data may be sampled over time, space or frequency. Consider, for example, the following monthly data (only a small portion is shown) of failure counts of a railway operation. The data simply…
Prologue from “Governing a Liquid Society – How to Save Democracy From Itself” In the past the Earth was populated by numerous civilizations. The Greeks, the Incas, or the Romans are just a few egregious examples. Because the temporal and spatial correlation between those civilizations was often non-existent, or very limited, if one happened…
Wikipedia: “In data mining, anomaly detection (also outlier detection) is the identification of rare items, events or observations which raise suspicions by differing significantly from the majority of the data. Typically the anomalous items will translate to some kind of problem such as bank fraud, a structural defect, medical problems or errors in a text.…
Standard deviations are a popular and often useful measure of dispersion. To be sure, a standard deviation is merely the most likely deviation from the mean. It also doesn’t take into account the shape of the probability distribution function (this is done better using, for example, entropy, which is a more versatile measure of…
It is known that Deutsche Bank is in trouble and, according to some, it poses a huge threat to the stability of the global financial system. Read here. On October 29-th, 2015, “The Bank announced a series of measures to reduce complexity and costs” and that the strategic goal was to “Make Deutsche Bank simpler and more efficient”.…
Short interview with Dr. J. Marczyk, the co-founder and Executive Chairman of Singapore-based Universal Ratings Pte Ltd. See video here.
The Global Financial Complexity Index™ (GFCI™) is a meta-index which measures the complexity of the global financial system. The GFCI™ is based on the closing values of the indices of the World’s main market indices and is computed on a daily basis. Essential to the global investor, the GFCI™ measures the ‘temperature’ of the…
The economy is a dynamic system which is far too complex for us to understand. Human nature is extremely complex and billions of irrational humans form the economy. How can such a system ever be thought to be efficient, in equilibrium and stable, as many prominent economists have claimed? But this system, like every…
Why over 90% of projects finish late? There is plenty of literature on the subject. This is a good example. In multi-project environments, such as the one illustrated below things can get very complex as project share resources (financial, manpower, equipment, etc.). When it comes to project costs, similar statements can be made.…
Complexity and interdependency are the hallmarks of our time. The increase of complexity and turbulence in the markets and in the economy demands new approaches when it comes to making investments, running a business, strategy and governance. Excessive complexity is the source of fragility and exposure. In our view, it is the main threat…
