QCM technology allows to make very quick risk and resilience assessments of all sorts of systems of processes. All it takes is data. Data may be sampled over time, space or frequency. Consider, for example, the following monthly data (only a small portion is shown) of failure counts of a railway operation. The data simply…
Before you start to solve a problem (a numerical problem) you should check its conditioning. An ill-conditioned problem will produce very fragile and unreliable results – no matter how elegant and sophisticated solution you come up with it will be vulnerable. If decisions or strategies are based on fragile outcomes, those decisions and strategies will…
For applications requiring ultra-fast and safe monitoring of the complexity of critical components, products or infrastructures, Ontonix offers a specific Complexity Chip. The chip is based on FPGA technology and has been developed jointly by Ontonix and SAIC in the framework of a project funded by the US Department of Defense Executive Agent for Printed…
In a 2015 United Nations Trade and Development Conference report “Trade Slowdown” one reads: ‘As of 2014 the trends in international trade were largely driven by the sluggish economic growth and the persisting economic and political turmoil in various part of the world. From 2011 to 2014 world trade grew at a rate of less…
“…correlation is charlatanism” Photo: AP photo/Richard Drew “Anything that relies on correlation is charlatanism” is a great article. But is correlation charlatanism? Yes it is. But it is not for the reasons explained in the article. Here is why. Correlations are present everywhere. The concept of correlation is one of the key constructs of statistics,…
In a turbulent economy, punctuated by destabilizing events, resilience and complexity as the main new factors which are impacting the global economy and driving financial performance. Increasing volatility, complexity and uncertainty are becoming the hallmarks of our times. While the unprecedented challenges affecting the global economy are a source of both opportunities and threats, traditional…
In a turbulent and globalized economy, the focus is no longer on growth but on stability. The stability of a business is of paramount importance to investors, shareholders, banks, insurance companies, etc. Banks in particular have great interest in monitoring their customers in order to appreciate their state of health. Complexity allows to establish such…
(image from http://www.impactlab.net) Probably the most frequently used definition of risk is this one: Risk = the Probability of something happening X resulting Cost/Consequences This definition is flawed because of two fundamental reasons, which the formula itself suggests very eloquently: 1. Estimation of probabilities of future events is very difficult (while it is considerably…
When facing large doses of uncertainty risk model-based methods of managing uncertainty don’t work. One thing is to manage an assembly line producing, for example, computer chips, another is to run a company in a globalized, turbulent, chaotic, non-stationary and shock-punctuated economy. Some things can be accomplished via mathematical modeling some cannot. Sure, you can…
Prediction of the future has always been man’s dream. However, there is an overwhelming amount of physical evidence that this is quite impossible. This is because the future is permanently under construction. Therefore, as every second passes, the future is changed. The cause of this are the laws of physics. If the future were predictable…
