QCM technology allows to make very quick risk and resilience assessments of all sorts of systems of processes. All it takes is data. Data may be sampled over time, space or frequency. Consider, for example, the following monthly data (only a small portion is shown) of failure counts of a railway operation. The data simply…
April 28, 2020 Fitch cuts the rating of Italy from ‘BBB’ (April 21, 2017) to ‘BBB-‘ with stable outlook. The downgrade, the agency points out, “reflects the significant impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Italian economy”. According to Fitch, in 2020, Italy’s GDP should record a drop 8% with a debt / GDP ratio…
The covid-19 has accentuated the fragmentation of the European Union. In a moment of political fragility we have performed a resilience rating analysis of the union as a whole as well as of the individual countries and specific macro regions. The idea is to perform a preliminary and simple assessment of how each country could…
Just to put things in perspective: “Overall, the CDC estimates that 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 can be blamed on the flu. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year.” Read full article. The dispersion, 290,000 to 650,000 is significant. We have run…
In the era of globalized and interconnected economy, it is becoming clear that all corporations, banks and countries form part of a huge system of systems. As turbulence increases and the possibility of shocks and extreme events rises, the importance of a systems perspective of the economy becomes evident. In fact, due to turbulence, and…
A recent blog by CISCO speaks of how QCM – Quantitative Complexity Management – is used in anomaly detection in highly complex systems and contexts. In particular, it speaks of QCM as being able to detect the existence of an anomaly without having seen it before. Such capability goes beyond Machine Learning in that QCM…
The search for early-warning signs is one of the key issues for decision makers. The advantages of knowing in advance the evolution towards critical situations are obvious. Complexity is a new and powerful indicator that quantifies the degree of sophistication and governability of a business and which impacts its Resistance to Shocks[1] (RtS). Both complexity…
Prologue from “Governing a Liquid Society – How to Save Democracy From Itself” In the past the Earth was populated by numerous civilizations. The Greeks, the Incas, or the Romans are just a few egregious examples. Because the temporal and spatial correlation between those civilizations was often non-existent, or very limited, if one happened…
Wikipedia: “In data mining, anomaly detection (also outlier detection) is the identification of rare items, events or observations which raise suspicions by differing significantly from the majority of the data. Typically the anomalous items will translate to some kind of problem such as bank fraud, a structural defect, medical problems or errors in a text.…
The EU28 Resistance-to-Shocks (RtS) ratings. To navigate the Complexity Maps, click on the corresponding icon. Hover and click the mouse pointer over the squares on the map. The resilience (robustness) ranking is as follows: Analysis performed…
