Investing Based on Systemic Analysis of Markets

Suppose that one wishes to invest in US public companies and eventually two candidate portfolios are available. Suppose that both portfolios are built on companies having a resilience that is higher than that of the entire system of US public companies. The plot below indicates the resilience and complexity of this system which comprises over…

Major Stock Markets: Is A Crash Imminent?

Over the past few months stock markets have been registering very positive performance. Some analysts claim the markets are in a bubble condition. Bubbles can emerge from cognitive biases, herd behaviour and involve positive feedback loops which accelerate bubble growth. The S&P, for example, has tripled since its low in 2009. Since the 1990s, the…

Building a “Complexity Management Device”

  Arduino is an open-source electronics platform based on easy-to-use hardware and software. It’s intended for anyone making interactive projects, see TED video. Arduino boards (see list here) come in numerous types and may be connected to a wide variety of inputs (sensors, devices) and outputs (actuators, devices, computers). For example, the Arduino Fio boardis…

Using Complexity to Measure Images

  Recently revealed analysis of NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) data has delivered images of unseen quality. The images of the Moon’s terrain made possible by the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) instrument onboard the LRO has been compared to similar images obtained using the Unified Lunar Control Network¬† based on the best available data…

Are We Facing a New Collapse?

A quick look at the resilience of the major indices on December 19-th, 2014. The analysis is performed on a daily basis, we report the situation we have registered after the markets closed yesterday. EU: FTSE.MIB – 63.7% SSMI – 81.5% FTSE – 64.5% CAC40 – 44.6% DAX30 – 76.3%   Asia: HSI – 68.9%…

The Elegance of Frugality and Risk

Preface to “A New Theory of Risk and Rating” by Giulio Sapelli. The Elegance of Frugality and Risk. From a theoretical standpoint, risk is confronted in the very same way in which human interests and activities deploy and manifest themselves at given levels of self-organization. In fact, there cannot exist an objectivistic and deterministic theory…