- Human nature
- Feelings, emotions, states of mind, perceptions (love, hatred, fear, anger, happiness, sorrow, vengeance, treason, danger)
Nature taxes heavily any attempt to violate its laws. Predicting the future via mathematical models, or any other means, is impossible. Acting based on the results of such models (i.e models that don’t follow Nature’s laws) is, consequently, increasingly dangerous as the prediction horizon is extended as well as the degree of sophistication of the model that is used to perpetrate the crime. The concept of risk reflects the unhealthy desire to predict the future using sophisticated mathematics but this doesn’t hide the substance. The uneducated public may find comforting the fact that exotic mathematics is used to predict the value of stocks or real-estate, or to establish the Probability of Default of a company. However, any statements along these lines are nothing more than obscure high-tech camouflage of the same old and futile attempt to predict the future. The future is always under construction.