On Extreme Problems

Extreme problems are very large-scale multi-disciplinary problems, involving thousands or millions of variables and which cannot be solved using conventional technology. In such situations, it is impossible to determine the cause of the problem not only because of its sheer size but, most importantly, because it is frequently perceived through conventional eyes and distorted by narrow and linear thinking. It is not a matter of Big Data, AI, huge compute power or sophisticated math modeling – some things just cannot be modeled. Certain problems cannot be solved with traditional mathematics. A different approach is mandatory. A new mindset is key.

The toughest challenges facing humanity originate from excessive complexity

Examples of extreme problems:

Large-scale zero-day cyber attacks
Are we under attack? This is a question that makes the military loose sleep
Unexpected collapses of critical systems or infrastructures (transportation systems, IT networks, large corporations, trading systems)
Prolonged states of crisis, inefficiency or frequent system failures (process plants, transportation systems, economies, telephone networks)
Sudden catastrophic collapse (spacecraft, aircraft, software systems, ecosystems, stock markets)
Global emergencies
Post-crisis scenario management

Extreme problems cause extreme consequences.

Extreme Problems may be solved at their roots – their massive complexity

But why do Extreme Problems originate in the first place? Basically because of:

Bad design
Evolutionary and incremental approach to new challenges
Automation of old ways of thinking instead of innovation
Neglecting complexity during design

Extreme Problems often lead to extreme consequences because in highly complex systems:

Malfunction may not be detectable for long periods
Highly complex systems often operate close to failure mode
The crucial variables are discovered by accident
The likelihood of failure increases with complexity

Solving Extreme Problems requires:

A new way approach to Problem Statement
A new solution strategy: data-centric not model-centric
Large-scope, large-scale systemic approach
World-class computational resources

Our global and inter-dependent economy is punctuated by shocks and destabilizing events which will increase in frequency and intensity. This means that extreme problems will become more frequent, more likely and more severe.