Failed Doomsday and eco-pocalyptic predictions
Extreme Problems are very large-scale multi-disciplinary problems, involving thousands or millions of variables and which cannot be solved using conventional technology. In such situations, it is impossible to determine the cause of the problem not only because of its sheer size but, most importantly, because it is frequently perceived through conventional eyes and distorted by narrow and linear thinking. It is not a matter of Big Data, AI, huge compute power or sophisticated math modeling – some things just cannot be modeled. Certain problems cannot be solved with traditional mathematics. A model-free approach is mandatory.
One example is that of climate models. The climate on our planet is dominated by very many factors, some impossible to model, some simply unknown. Those who have been engaged in building models know that:
“The most important things in a model are those it doesn’t contain”
So, how good are climate models?Below are some…
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