Economics Society Uncategorized

The Covid-19 – Never waste a Good Crisis, Part II.


20-th April, 2020

At the time of writing, the number of deaths that have been attributed (yes, attributed or related to)  to the covid 19 virus in Italy is 23660. The ISS – National Health Institute – states that more than 99% of the deceased had already some, often serious, chronic disease. This means that 236 deaths have been caused by the virus and the virus alone. But that is not the point. Let’s stick with the 23660, irrespective of the fact that it may be the result of a curious form of accounting or of a very meticulous scientific process, including autopsy of every single victim, etc. Let’s keep this figure in mind.

The National Statistics Bureau (ISTAT) reports the following deaths (“Decessi”) in Italy since 2002:


It is immediately visible that in 2003, 29075 more people died than in 2002. In 2015, 49207 more people died than in 2014. Finally, in 2017, the difference with respect to the previous year was 33759. During 2017, 1778 people died on average every day. A chart illustrates the evolution:

ScreenHunter_823 Apr. 20 12.16

The increments of deaths in 2003, 2015 and 2017 were way above the 23660 registered until today, and yet:

  • we did not embark on a systematic destruction of our economy
  • we did not need to wear useless masks
  • we were not confined to an illegitimate regime of house arrests
  • our governments did not openly resort to tracking of citizens’ movements using smartphones

So, why the panic now, and not in 2015? Or in 2017? OK, it’s not over yet. The number of covid-19 (supposedly) related deaths may reach 30-35 thousand in Italy, but still, where is the logic? The current deaths are well beyond the standard deviation, which is 30228.

In his article, J. P. Ioannidis states that “If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average”.

Taking a more global view. The WHO reports that as of 16-th of April, the following deaths have been recorded worldwide:


Looking at infectious diseases only, AIDS has killed over 600.000, Diarrhea nearly 640.000 and flu over 190.000. Why aren’t we panicking? Why isn’t there a furious campaign against AIDS? Probably because more money can be made selling masks or rubber gloves than condoms. For obvious reasons, not everyone today needs a condom, but according to our governments everyone needs a mask.

Below is a ranking of death causes on an annual basis.


Influenza and Pneumonia kill more than 3 million. That is more than an order of magnitude of what covid 19 will kill. Again, why the global panic, fear mongering, paranoia and economy destruction because of 160.000 deaths? Only 1% of the deaths from coronary heart disease and stroke amounts to 150.000, just about as much as the covid 19 deaths until today…..



Linear, three-dimensional thinking makes people say silly things.

Established originally in 2005 in the USA, Ontonix is a technology company headquartered in Como, Italy. The unusual technology and solutions developed by Ontonix focus on countering what most threatens safety, advanced products, critical infrastructures, or IT network security - the rapid growth of complexity. In 2007 the company received recognition by being selected as Gartner's Cool Vendor. What makes Ontonix different from all those companies and research centers who claim to manage complexity is that we have a complexity metric. This means that we MEASURE complexity. We detect anomalies in complex defense systems without using Machine Learning for one very good reason: our clients don’t have the luxury of multiple examples of failures necessary to teach software to recognize them. We identify anomalies without having seen them before. Sometimes, you must get it right the first and only time!

0 comments on “The Covid-19 – Never waste a Good Crisis, Part II.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: