Manufacturing Waves

So, how many covid-19 waves do you want?

The ratio of positive covid-19 subjects to number of tests is around 10%. Out of 100.000 citizens that undergo testing, 10.000 will result positive to covid-19 (or positive to a few of its genes, after it was decided to relax the criteria a bit – just being inclusive, you know). This means that out of a global population of 7.6 billion, today there are around 760 million individuals that are already covid-19 positive. So far 87 million cases have been confirmed. Clearly, the more we test the more positive individuals we will find – theoretically around 760 million. But is this real contagion we are speaking of, i.e. a dynamic propagation, or are we simply counting those that are already positive today? Let’s not forget travel restrictions, repeated lockdowns, face masks, etc., which have the goal of preventing contagion. But the faster we count, the more frightening this thing can look. If testing speed increases, the outcome may look like a wave. And we still need to find the remaining 760 – 87 = 673 million that already today are positive! The speed of this testing can make it look like many waves. In fact, if during one year (2020) 87 million cases have been confirmed, it can take 4-5 years to identify the “missing” 673 million. Basically, we have a pool of 670 million cases to pick from. The speed of picking controls the entire process.

What this means is that covid-19 waves of contagion, or simply waves, can be manufactured based on the current requirements. Want a big wave in December 2021? Just make sure to increase testing intensity in, say, September 2021.

But what about the deaths? Approximately 150.000 people die every day. The daily covid-19-related death rate is today (January 6-th, 2021) around 10.000. This means that the margin to pump up the number of covid-19-related deaths is huge.