The covid-19 has accentuated the fragmentation of the European Union. In a moment of political fragility we have performed a resilience rating analysis of the union as a whole as well as of the individual countries and specific macro regions. The idea is to perform a preliminary and simple assessment of how each country could…
20-th April, 2020 At the time of writing, the number of deaths that have been attributed (yes, attributed or related to) to the covid 19 virus in Italy is 23660. The ISS – National Health Institute – states that more than 99% of the deceased had already some, often serious, chronic disease. This means that…
Easter Island (Chilean territory), is a remote volcanic island in Polynesia. Its native name is Rapa Nui. It’s famed for archaeological sites, including nearly 900 monumental statues called moai, created by inhabitants during the 13th–16th centuries. The moai are carved human figures with oversize heads, often resting on massive stone pedestals called ahus. Ahu Tongariki…
In the era of globalized and interconnected economy, it is becoming clear that all corporations, banks and countries form part of a huge system of systems. As turbulence increases and the possibility of shocks and extreme events rises, the importance of a systems perspective of the economy becomes evident. In fact, due to turbulence, and…
Trying to simplify a business without being able to measure its complexity (simplicity) is like a doctor who proposes a weight loss diet but has no means of measuring the weight of his patients. If one has no complexity metric then we’re talking of subjective opinions, sensations, feelings, certainly not science. The silly images such…
Beyond Madoff: Anti-Money Laundering with Quantitative Complexity Management. By JB Beckett, Author of ‘New Fund Order’. Foreword by Jacek Marczyk. Foreword: “Our society depends on a number of highly complex and highly interconnected networks that process and distribute energy, information, goods, etc. They form an immense system of systems that has one key characteristic –…
The search for early-warning signs is one of the key issues for decision makers. The advantages of knowing in advance the evolution towards critical situations are obvious. Complexity is a new and powerful indicator that quantifies the degree of sophistication and governability of a business and which impacts its Resistance to Shocks[1] (RtS). Both complexity…
Extreme Problems are very large-scale multi-disciplinary problems, involving thousands or millions of variables and which cannot be solved using conventional technology. In such situations, it is impossible to determine the cause of the problem not only because of its sheer size but, most importantly, because it is frequently perceived through conventional eyes and distorted by…
Before you start to solve a problem (a numerical problem) you should check its conditioning. An ill-conditioned problem will produce very fragile and unreliable results – no matter how elegant and sophisticated solution you come up with it will be vulnerable. If decisions or strategies are based on fragile outcomes, those decisions and strategies will…
Which technology is the most dangerous? Which technology is most feared? Is it Artificial Intelligence? Is it nanotechnology? Genetic manipulation? Nuclear energy? Maybe superconductivity? Or robotics? No, it is none of these. The most dangerous technology of the 21-st century is indubitably QCM – Quantitative Complexity Management. The QCM has been established in the early…
