Complexity Economics Society

Recent Resilience Trends: China, Euro Area, Russia and the USA

Ontonix monitors the resilience of major countries and macro areas using the World Development Indicators published every year by the World Bank (download). There are over 1440 such indicators. These spans diverse sectors such as, economy, society, energy, industry, education, healthcare, employment, transportation, finance, crime, military spending, etc. In other words, our analyses embrace a given a country as a system, not just its GDP. In essence, we’re looking at the big picture.

In this blog we report the evolution of resilience in the period 1970 – 2022 for China, the Euro area, Russian Federation and the USA. Resilience is measured on a scale from 0% to 100%.

The table below provides a synthesis of the situation.

As can be observed, all countries have very similar resilience. However, what counts more than the value itself is the trend. Over the past four year period, which includes of course the c19 pandemic,

Russia had the lowest resilience drop of 0.7%

On the other hand,

the USA suffered the biggest resilience reduction of 2.8%

The same may be said of China. What could be the cause of such important resilience drops in the case of the USA and China is the severity of the self-inflicted lockdowns, which have damaged both economies significantly. Over the entire period of analysis, Russia also boasts the highest resilience ever reached of just over 85%, compared to 82% of the USA and 83% in the case of China.

It will be interesting to monitor the resilience of the USA, with its fragile banking system and de-dollarization of trade of commodities such as oil and gas.

Established originally in 2005 in the USA, Ontonix is a technology company headquartered in Como, Italy. The unusual technology and solutions developed by Ontonix focus on countering what most threatens safety, advanced products, critical infrastructures, or IT network security - the rapid growth of complexity. In 2007 the company received recognition by being selected as Gartner's Cool Vendor. What makes Ontonix different from all those companies and research centers who claim to manage complexity is that we have a complexity metric. This means that we MEASURE complexity. We detect anomalies in complex defense systems without using Machine Learning for one very good reason: our clients don’t have the luxury of multiple examples of failures necessary to teach software to recognize them. We identify anomalies without having seen them before. Sometimes, you must get it right the first and only time!

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