Risk = Probability X Consequences. Really?
(image from http://www.impactlab.net) Probably the most frequently used definition of risk is this one: Risk = the Probability ofContinue Reading
Tag: advanced analytics
On the Complexity of Dynamics and the Dynamics of Complexity
When talking of derivatives and other sophisticated financial products, people often say that they are complex, that they have complexContinue Reading
Beyond Risk Management. What Are The Alternatives?
When facing large doses of uncertainty risk model-based methods of managing uncertainty don’t work. One thing is to manage anContinue Reading
Is It Possible To Make Predictions?
Prediction of the future has always been man’s dream. However, there is an overwhelming amount of physical evidence that thisContinue Reading
Why Can’t Huge Problems be Solved (Anymore)?
Before you start to solve a problem (a numerical problem) you should check its conditioning. An ill-conditioned problem will produceContinue Reading
Coping With Turbulence: More Theories and Math?
Isn’t it time to review our theories on economics, to see them in a radically different light? What lessons areContinue Reading
What Cannot be Modeled Should Not be Modeled
Ludwig Wittgenstein sustained that “what cannot be debated should not be debated”. We say that what cannot be modeled shouldContinue Reading
Can Simulation Technology Really Help Companies Do Business?
For someone who has been doing simulation for the last 30 years it is not easy to say no. LargeContinue Reading
In Math We Trust. That is Precisely the Problem.
The economy is a dynamic system which is far too complex for us to understand. Human nature is extremely complexContinue Reading
Ratings – From an Opinion to Science
In January 2011 The Financial Crisis Inquiry Committee claimed that “The three credit rating agencies were key enablers of theContinue Reading
