Blog written on February 3-rd, 2015. After the anti-bailout party has won the elections in Greece, global stock indices have edged up and the Euro has rebounded. The reaction of the markets appears to be, after much trepidation, mild, almost nonexistent. Has the Syriza-effect been compensated by the ECB’s money-printing programme? It is too early…
Blog written on January 12-th, 2015. In a recent article “Why The Next Stock Market Crash Will Happen Any Day Now” it is claimed that a massive stock market crash (down by 50%) will happen any day now. Based on past crash patterns it is said that we are on the verge of another huge…
A quick look at the resilience of the major indices on December 19-th, 2014. The analysis is performed on a daily basis, we report the situation we have registered after the markets closed yesterday. EU: FTSE.MIB – 63.7% SSMI – 81.5% FTSE – 64.5% CAC40 – 44.6% DAX30 – 76.3% Asia: HSI – 68.9%…
In a turbulent economy, punctuated by destabilizing events, resilience and complexity as the main new factors which are impacting the global economy and driving financial performance. Increasing volatility, complexity and uncertainty are becoming the hallmarks of our times. While the unprecedented challenges affecting the global economy are a source of both opportunities and threats, traditional…
Thomas Frey is currently Google’s Top Rated Futurist Speaker. He serves as the Senior Futurist and Executive Director of the DaVinci Institute. Read his article “The Complexity Disease”. “As complexity of a system increases, the costs associated with it increase exponentially to the point where the costs approach infinity, and collapse is a certainty. ….…
Recent research confirms that high portfolio complexity impacts negatively mid and long-term expected returns. This is because high complexity has been shown to be a formidable source of fragility, hence vulnerability. In a turbulent economy highly vulnerable portfolios and financial products are more exposed, therefore more risky. Assetdyne has demonstrated that a portfolio design strategy…
According to Wikipedia: “In finance, a derivative is a special type of contract that derives its value from the performance of an underlying entity. This underlying entity can be an asset, index, or interest rate, and is often called the “underlying”. Derivatives can be used for a number of purposes – including insuring against price…
In an interconnected and complex economy corporations form networks, or ecosystems as well as supply chains (or supply networks as they should be called). In the case of banks, telcos or insurance companies these ecosystems can be huge as they may contain millions of clients. Moreover, such ecosystems are changing constantly as companies compete, cooperate…
The following article is by Tim Fernholz, and has been written on September 16-th, 2013 and is proposed here verbatim. What if someone told you the stock market crashed and spiked 18,000 times since 2006, and you had no idea? That’s the contention of a group of scientists who study complex systems after analyzing…
The ASSETDYNEX tool (www.assetdynex.com) has a new and powerful graphic feature which enables users to quickly visualize the time histories of the complexity, resilience and value of portfolios. Complexity provides a multi-dimensional measure of the vitality and volatility of single stocks, portfolios or markets. The following examples, corresponding to main stock market indices, are…
